Here is why no one should vote SNP
I joined the SNP in 1974; along the way I have been a member of the SNP, Free Scotland Party, SNP and now Sovereignty. I was a member of these parties because they supported independence – even the SNP did, at one point. I was Chair of Yes Shetland in 2014; I hope my credentials as an independence supporter are clear.
What are the SNP for?
I will not vote for a Unionist party, but I cannot bring myself to vote for the SNP – what are they for anymore? I want to make it clear I am not having a go at anyone in the SNP; there are a lot of good people in the SNP. It is their lack of vigour from the SNP leadership regarding pushing for independence that is the issue for me.
Independence in Europe
They believed in independence then, but in the 1980s that stopped when they agreed to the Independence in Europe slogan. Some saw through this right away; it took me a bit longer. What is the logic of leaving one union to join an even bigger one? I listened to too many SNP folk going into contortions trying to justify Independence in Europe. I hung about as I believed in independence; it was a hard decision, but eventually I resigned. I still believe in independence, but do the SNP? Actually, I think that it is worse than that. I think they are actively working against independence; they believe in devolution, in maintaining devolution, administering Scotland for the London government.
How many majorities?
It used to be enough to get a majority of seats and Scotland would be independent. Just how many majorities do the SNP want? In both the 2016 and 2021 Scottish elections, the SNP had a majority of seats over the Unionist parties, going up from 46.5% share of the vote to 47.7%. In the 2015 UK general election, the SNP won 56 of 59 seats, and they were on 50% of the vote! 56 seats! 50% of the vote! Why are we not independent? The SNP should have been agitating there and then for independence. Instead, they sat back and waited for London to agree to an independence referendum.
SNP have settled down
Winnie Ewing was told by Harold Wilson to settle down; Winnie replied that she was there to settle up, rather than settle down. The SNP have settled down; the SNP leadership has been sucked into the system, they have gone native.
As an aside, in the 2016 Brexit referendum, polling showed a third of SNP voters voted to leave the EU. Pause for thought at SNP HQ when that came through – no, they carried on regardless.
In the 2017 general election, the SNP won a majority of the seats with 35 seats off 36% of the vote. In the 2019 general election, the SNP increased to 48 seats off 45% of the vote.
By the time the UK 2024 general election came round, opinion polls on independence were sitting on or about 50% of the vote share, but the SNP dropped to 30% of the vote share, down to 9 seats.
The conclusion has to be that independence supporters no longer trust the SNP to deliver; voters see that the SNP cannot – or, is it, will not – deliver independence. Those independence supporters are looking about and going elsewhere!
SNP 1 and 2, tried and failed
The SNP is proposing a policy that has been tried and failed before, so why go for it again? We have been here before: the SNP get a majority, ask permission from London for a referendum, London says no, SNP say thank you, and administer devolution till the next election for their lords and masters.
No referendum
How many colonies have asked permission to become independent, and got it? Not many. And what about Prime Minister Starmer’s statement: “We’re not having an independence referendum”. As I said before, I believe the SNP is actively working against independence, and here is why. The SNP are saying vote SNP 1 and 2. This means vote for the SNP candidate in your constituency, then vote SNP in the region.
But they know, as we all know from past elections, that this is an issue. The problem with the d’Hondt voting system is that if you win a constituency, that counts against you in the regional vote; if you win a lot of constituencies they count even more against you.
In 2016, the SNP got over 950,000 votes in the regions, 41.7% of the regional vote, gaining 4 seats. In 2021, the SNP got over one million votes in the region, 40.3% of the regional vote, gaining 2 seats. So, an increase in the SNP regional votes of 100,000 actually led to a halving of the SNP regional seats.
Unionist MSPs benefit
So, the SNP had so many constituency seats, they then got so few regional seats. Irony upon irony, that opened the door for the Unionist parties.
So, the benefactors of the SNP 1 and 2 were all the unionist parties. They claimed regional seats on much smaller shares of the regional vote. The huge SNP regional vote counted for the unionist parties! Proposing the same again, knowing the results from before, suggests to me that the SNP want a unionist opposition in Edinburgh to fight against.
What independence supporters should do in the regional vote is make their choice of independence-supporting party or independent, and vote for them. Obviously, I would hope independence supporters vote for Sovereignty. What Scotland needs is not more unionist MSPs, but independence-supporting MSPs to push the SNP towards what they are supposed to be about: independence!
Independence-supporting MSPs should keep pushing independence to the forefront; the SNP can get involved or get dropped by the independence-supporting electorate.
UDI
If there is a majority of independence MSPs, then those MSPs should declare UDI, a Unilateral Declaration of Independence – that will be what the voters have told the MSPs to do.
Scotland is said to be in a voluntary union with England, but the problem with this is that there is no way out for Scotland from this voluntary union. There is no legal route to independence, there is no political route. The word voluntary means nothing in relation to Scotland.
UDI is what the SNP should have done long ago; it is time for the voters to decide that that is the way forward and take their vote elsewhere.
Brian Nugent, Leader Sovereignty
Candidate, Shetland constituency Candidate, Highlands and Islands regional list